The game industry will soon face an unprecedented recession. Recently, such opinions have been seen here and there on SNS such as X (Twitter).
Is this really true? Also, on what basis is such a statement made?
Looking mainly at the claim in X, there are two main grounds.
・People with established positions in the industry say so.
・The number of commissioned projects has decreased
That seems to be the case.
Regarding the former, it seems that no one in such a position is directly transmitting anything, so it has not been confirmed whether it is true or not.
Regarding the latter, I have heard stories from people around me here and there during the implementation, and this one seems to be reliable.
Along with this, there are also stories about the withdrawal of companies such as China’s ByteDance from the game business, the plight of major Japanese game companies such as Square Enix, and talk of reducing outsourcing.
It is true that recently we have been constantly seeing news of some major companies withdrawing from the game business and unsatisfactory financial results. In fact, the situation like the “social gaming bubble” of a while ago has ended, and it is true that such a trend exists.
I am also aware that demand for outsourcing in this area is decreasing.
However, if you ask me whether this trend is a major recession, I think it is a little different.
Around 2010, the game industry was said to be in a recession. Then smartphones appeared, hugely successful titles like Puzzle and Dragons and Monster Strike appeared, and the game market suddenly returned to growth.
In that sense, smartphone games were the savior of the game industry, but on the other hand, there was a certain degree of recognition that this was a temporary situation that would only last for a limited time.
Thanks to the evolution of devices and the various ingenuity of developers, smartphone games have advanced and have led the market until now, but when it comes to social games, there are often issues such as a revenue structure that relies on gacha and problems with addiction. This has been pointed out, and there are also aspects of the game that have no choice but to be weakened, so growth has reached a plateau.
As the growth of social games stagnates, it is inevitable that the industry in this field will shrink.
However, I believe that this is a change in gaming trends, not a major recession.
Many hot words have emerged in the gaming world over the past five years, such as esports, Steam, NFT fusion, metaverse, and indie. Considering the amount of outsourced work, it is difficult to imagine that it will immediately become a source of support for freelance developers, for example, and I think this is the root of the feeling of recession.
However, it is true that the industry as a whole is changing, and while this has brought some kind of temporary shock, I think it is a process in which games will continue to grow in response to changes in society.
Just as various industries have been forced to advance due to changes in technology and society, games also need constant progress, and people involved in games need to understand and respond to this.
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